As we begin to make sense of the results of the 2024 election, in which Donald Trump was handily reelected president of the United States, we are learning more about the turnout and preferences of young voters.
There was no shortage of events and initiatives geared toward turning out young voters this cycle, including: on-the-ground organizing on college campuses nationwide; Daybreaker events like dance parties and marches to the polls with Quavo in Philadelphia and with Yung Gravy in Madison, Wisconsin; political-influencer hype houses meant to inspire and promote social content about the election; podcast appearances by the presidential candidates themselves, ranging from Trump on Joe Rogan’s show to Vice President Kamala Harris on Alex Cooper’s Call Her Daddy; a Swifties for Kamala coalition of Taylor Swift fans backing the vice president; and slates of creators invited to the Democratic and Republican national conventions. But how did these efforts fare?
According to analysis of National Election Pool and Census data from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts (CIRCLE), an estimated 42% of young Americans voted in the 2024 presidential election, which is lower than in 2020, when CIRCLE estimated that more than 50% of young Americans cast a ballot. But in critical battleground states — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — youth voter turnout reached an estimated 50%. (It’s worth noting that official final vote counts are not yet in, as millions of ballots still need to be counted in states like California, Nevada, and Arizona.)
Young voters are not a monolith, and their political preferences vary across the country. On the whole, young voters preferred Harris over Trump by an estimated 6-point margin (52% to 46%), according to CIRCLE analysis of AP VoteCast data. But that is significantly lower than the level of support President Joe Biden received from young people in 2020, which shows substantial shifts toward the right in the youth electorate this year. Four years ago, young voters backed Biden over Trump by a whopping 25 points, CIRCLE has reported.
The breakdown shows there were key demographic trends that contributed to the shift in preference, most notably a wide gap in party preference between young women and young men. While 82% of young nonbinary/other voters supported Harris (a 69-point margin from the 13% who voted for Trump) and women backed Harris by 18 points (58% to 40%), young men supported Trump by 14 (56% to 42%). In 2020, young women’s support for Democrats outpaced young men’s, but by a much smaller margin. And four years ago, young men were more likely to vote blue. In 2020, 56% of young men supported Biden, while 41% voted for Trump. Meanwhile, 65% of young women voted for Biden, while 33% voted for Trump. This time, support for Trump was strongest among young white men.
During listening sessions and one-on-one conversations with young voters over the past many months, I’ve noticed this gender divide firsthand. While young women are more likely to list women’s rights or access to reproductive health care as a top priority and said they were motivated to vote — and to vote for Democrats — young men, as a result, are less likely to focus on the issue, often adding that it doesn’t feel as personal to them.
Zooming out, young women became more liberal during Trump’s first term in office, but the number has since receded a bit, according to Gallup data.
Young women have fought for abortion access and women’s rights in the Trump era, but young men aren’t as strongly united on a specific set of issues. In turn, the political experiences of young men and women have diverged.
Daniel Cox, director of the Survey Center on American Life, tells Teen Vogue via email, “A lot of pre-election polls showed something unthinkable a few years ago, that Trump [was] making significant inroads with young men. But that’s exactly what he did. According to AP’s [VoteCast] data, a majority of young men voted for Trump. Like a lot of voters, men generally viewed Trump as better able to handle the economy." Cox, who studies and is writing a book on the partisan gender gap, adds, "But they also simply liked him. Most young men who showed up to vote have a positive view of Trump.”
Cox explains further, “There are a number of reasons Trump appealed to young men. First, he showed up in the places they congregate online. He engaged with the podcasters and influencers they follow and trust. More than most other voters, young men are more politically homeless — they have a negative view of both political parties. They do not trust the politicians to serve the public interest, or the political process. Trump offered an easy shortcut. Despite all the stupid and offensive comments, young men also found Trump likable.”
But that’s not the case for most young women, Cox says: “They were less likely to brush off crude and demeaning comments he made about women or give him a pass on the role he played in the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Although young women and men share similar formative experiences, they are now heading in very different political directions.”
Broken down by race, young voters of color were more likely to support Harris, while young white voters favored Trump, according to CIRCLE. The organization’s analysis shows that 75% of African American or Black voters under age 30 backed Harris, while 23% backed Trump; 58% of Latino or Hispanic voters backed Harris, while 38% backed Trump; and 72% of Asian voters backed Harris, while 23% backed Trump. Meanwhile, 54% of white voters under 30 backed Trump, while 44% backed Harris.
When it comes to education, young voters without college experience were more likely to back Trump, while voters who had attended college were more likely to back Harris. Regionally, young voters in rural areas were more likely to back Trump (59% to 38%), while young voters in urban and suburban areas were more likely to back Harris (61% to 37% and 56% to 42%, respectively).
As CIRCLE’s Newhouse director Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg pointed out during a Thursday press briefing on the organization’s analysis, young voters are issue-focused. CIRCLE’s analysis found that young voters prioritized the economy and jobs above all else at 40% — and were more likely than all voters to say the economy was their top issue — followed by abortion (13%), immigration (11%), health care (9%), and climate change (8%).
Leading up to the election, polls of young people repeatedly showed that economic issues were their top concern. According to CIRCLE’s analysis, young voters who ranked abortion, climate change, racism, and gun policy as their top issue were more likely to support Harris, while those who said economy and jobs or immigration were more likely to back Trump.
According to CIRCLE, 9% of young voters who said foreign policy was their top concern voted for a third-party candidate. The analysis shows that just 2% of young voters overall backed a third-party candidate.
CIRCLE’s analysis also shows varying political preferences state by state, with some states shifting red since 2020 in terms of the youth vote. There were only three states — Maine, Wisconsin, and Indiana — where Harris’s support from young voters under 30 outperformed Biden’s in 2020. In crucial battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Harris clinched the youth vote, but by a smaller margin than Biden in 2020. And though Biden won the youth vote in 2020 in Louisiana, Missouri, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Texas, the initial analysis shows young voters in these states flipped for Trump in 2024.
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