The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump isn’t the only game-changing election on the table in November. There are 33 US Senate seats up for regular election, as well as all 435 US House seats and 11 gubernatorial offices. These races may have a profound effect on the balance of power in 2024 and beyond. Polls suggest the Democrats may take back the House, but lose their slim hold on the Senate, which could have far-reaching implications depending on who is in the White House come January. And as we’re learning from the ever-dramatic gubernatorial race in North Carolina, some of these races could potentially have a reverse-coattails effect on how their states vote in the Big One (i.e., unpopular down-ballot candidates could end up pulling support away from Harris or Trump).
So which races should you be paying attention to? Well, probably most of them — but that’s a lot of candidates to keep straight. Instead, here’s a cheat sheet featuring the 10 most interesting Senate and gubernatorial races this year.
Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred
Texas has been lightly flirting with a blue turn for a few election cycles now, and though the state will assuredly go for Trump in the presidential election, the Senate race between incumbent Ted Cruz and Colin Allred is one to watch. Cruz, a Republican, has served as Texas’s junior senator since 2013. He is a reliably conservative politician who has supported anti-abortion and anti-trans measures, has denied the reality of climate change, and famously went to Cancún while millions of Texans went without power in historically freezing temperatures. Since 2019, Allred, a Democrat, has served as the representative from Texas’s 32nd congressional district, which comprises parts of Dallas and its surrounding suburbs. He was a civil rights attorney and a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans.
This race is something of an unexpected nail-biter. Though Cruz has generally polled anywhere from 4 to 10 points ahead of Allred, the spread appears to be narrowing, and a Morning Consult poll conducted from September 9 to 18 found Allred overtaking Cruz by one point. In 2018, Cruz had a tougher-than-expected fight for his seat when he was challenged by Democrat Beto O’Rourke and was able to win, so it’s likely he’ll prevail this year. But if Allred does manage to best Cruz, he would be the first Democrat since 1994 to win a statewide election in Texas.
Ohio Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno
One of the more vulnerable Democratic Senate seats this year belongs to Sherrod Brown, the only Democratic statewide official elected in Ohio since 2011. Ohio has gotten redder since Brown assumed office in 2007, particularly as MAGA has taken hold of the party, and the press has characterized Brown’s 2024 race against Bernie Moreno — an anti-abortion, Trump-endorsed businessman who says things like “it’s a little crazy” that “a lot of suburban women” are focused on abortion — as “the fight of his life.” Most polling shows Brown ahead, but the race appears to be tightening, which could spell bad news for the Democrats come November.
Montana Senate race between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy
It’s something of a miracle that Democrat Jon Tester has managed to hold onto his Senate seat in reliably red Montana since he was first elected in 2006. That he’s done it without being a Joe Manchin-esque thorn in the Democrats’ side is particularly impressive. But Montana went to Trump by 20.2% in 2016 and by 16.4% in 2020, and Tester is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. He is the last Democrat to hold statewide office in a state that keeps getting redder, and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL, has been lapping him in the polls of late. Tester has won close elections before (and Sheehy has weathered some light scandals). But it doesn’t look good for Tester right now, and without Montana, the Democrats have little-to-no-chance at Senate control, MSNBC’s Hayes Brown argued in a recent column.
Arizona Senate race between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake
Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema was arguably one of the most infuriating Democrats in the Senate before she switched to being an Independent shortly after the 2022 midterm elections. Luckily, Arizonans weren’t big fans of hers and she declined to run for a second term this year. Now the race is between Ruben Gallego, a Democrat currently representing Arizona’s 3rd congressional district, and Kari Lake, a former local news anchor and MAGA diehard, who rose to fame (infamy?) during her 2022 gubernatorial run.
Per reporting from the Arizona Republic and Politico, Lake is a 2020 election-denier and Covid conspiracy theorist who has headlined several fundraisers hosted by locals who’ve allegedly promoted QAnon on social media. She was whole-heartedly endorsed by Trump in 2022 but still lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs. And though Arizona seems to be swinging toward Trump in the presidential polls this year, Gallego is running well ahead of Lake (and Harris), so this could be a nice pickup for the Dems.
North Carolina gubernatorial race between Mark Robinson and Josh Stein
Oh, where to begin? Last time we checked in on North Carolina lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, he was a conspiracy-loving, Hitler-quoting, Beyoncé-hating, anti-abortion, and anti-LGBTQ+ Republican gubernatorial candidate running against state attorney general Josh Stein. Robinson is still all those things, but you can add self-professed “black Nazi” to the mix, according to a CNN KFile investigation. Robinson was already lagging pretty far behind Stein in the polls, but after a CNN report alleged that he had a history of making disturbing comments on pornography website Nude Africa’s message board — including that he supported bringing back slavery — his campaign appears to be falling apart.
This is significant because North Carolina might be in play for Harris, and some election experts say Robinson’s apparent collapse could lead to a case of reverse coattails, i.e., Stein’s strong down-ballot lead could increase Democratic turnout and help push Harris over the line. That said, recent polling from NYT/Siena suggests things aren’t actually looking that good for Harris in the Sunbelt. At the very least, the gubernatorial race in North Carolina is looking like a lock for Democrats.
Pennsylvania Senate race between Bob Casey and Dave McCormick
Pennsylvania is a must-win state for the presidency and it’s also a Senate battleground this year. Senator Bob Casey has held the seat since 2007 and is up against Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Though polling generally shows Casey with a decent lead, some polls suggest McCormick is giving him a run for his money. Watch this space.
Washington gubernatorial race between Bob Ferguson and Dave Reichert
Jay Inslee is not seeking a fourth term as Washington’s governor, and the race is now between Democratic state attorney general Bob Ferguson and Republican Dave Reichert, a former police officer and US Representative. Ferguson has consistently polled ahead of Reichert, so it’s likely this governorship will stay in the column for the Democrats come January.
Michigan Senate race between Elissa Slotkin and Mike Rogers
Cook Political Report moved Michigan’s race to replace Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow to a toss-up in July over fears that Joe Biden’s debate performance and the ensuing fallout would take down-ballot candidates down with him if he stayed in the race. He didn’t and things are looking up for the Dems in Michigan, where Elissa Slotkin, in her first term as the representative for Michigan’s 7th congressional district, is leading Republican Mike Rogers, who represented Michigan’s 8th congressional district from 2001 to 2015. That said, a recent poll from Suffolk University/USA Today found Slotkin only two points ahead of Rogers, with 10% of those polled remaining undecided, so there’s room here for an upset.
Maryland Senate race between Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks
Maryland hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980, but when popular former GOP governor Larry Hogan announced he’d be running to replace retiring senator Ben Cardin, it seemed possible that the deep blue state might flip the seat for him. Democratic county executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is running against him, has been pushing the message that adding even a popular moderate politician to the GOP’s Senate count could be catastrophic for abortion rights nationwide. “Larry Hogan praised Donald Trump after Roe had been overturned and said that he deserved credit for his accomplishments,” Alsobrooks told MSNBC last month, adding that Hogan vetoed abortion care legislation in the state of Maryland and withheld funding to train abortion providers. “No matter what, if Larry Hogan is elected, he will hand a majority over to a party that has declared war on the reproductive freedoms of women. If he is elected, there will never be a vote to codify Roe in federal law because he would give the majority to people…who have declared war on reproductive freedoms for women.” Alsobrooks currently leads in the polls.
Florida Senate race between Rick Scott and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Once a definitive swing state, Florida appears to have turned solidly red in recent years. And while it’s likely that Republican senator (and former governor) Rick Scott will win a second term, some Florida insiders think there’s room for an upset. Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who was the representative for Florida’s 26th congressional district from 2019 to 2021, does seem to be nipping at Scott’s heels in the polls.
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